This report is for educational purposes only, and not to provide investment advice.  Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult a investment professional.
While I try to be accurate, I assume no responsibility for any figure in this spreadsheet.
See my website on stocks or see my blog at the following sites.  www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html www.spbrunner.blogspot.com/
Canadian Pacific Railway     CP-T www.cpr.ca   Fiscal Yr: Dec 31   US CP-N                          
Year 12/31/99 12/31/00 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 12/31/09 12/31/10 12/31/11 12/30/12       #Y                  
Revenue* $3,496.4 $3,655.1 $3,698.6 $3,666 $3,661 $3,903 $4,320 $4,583 $4,708 $4,932 $4,303 $4,982       36.29% <-Total Growth 10 Revenue                
Increase -0.57% 4.54% 1.19% -0.89% -0.13% 6.62% 10.68% 6.10% 2.71% 4.76% -12.74% 15.76%       3.14% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue                
Rev per Share $22.07 $23.08 $23.35 $23.13 $23.07 $24.58 $27.30 $29.47 $30.71 $32.07 $25.54 $29.44       2.89% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue                
P/S (Price/Sales) 0.77 0.95 1.36 1.35 1.58 1.66 1.78 2.08 2.09 1.28 2.22 2.20       2.47% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Per Share                
*Revenue in M CDN $            P/S 10 yr Ave 1.76 5 yr Ave 1.97       1.52% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Per Share                
                                                       
    -$3,655 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $4,982                              
              -$4,320 $0 $0 $0 $0 $4,982                              
    -$23 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $29                              
              -$27 $0 $0 $0 $0 $29                              
                   
EPS* $0.19 $1.53 $2.34 $3.11 $2.52 $2.60 $3.39 $5.02 $6.08 $3.98 $3.67 $3.85 $4.47 $5.22   151.63% <-Total Growth 10 Earnings                
Increase   705.26% 52.94% 32.91% -18.97% 3.17% 30.38% 48.08% 21.12% -34.54% -7.79% 4.90% 16.10% 16.78%   9.67% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Earnings                
* ESP per share (Cdn GAAP)                             2.58% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Earnings                
    -$1.53 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.85                              
              -$3.39 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.85                              
                                                       
Div*       $0.51 $0.51 $0.52 $0.58 $0.75 $0.90 $0.99 $0.99 $1.04 $1.08 $1.08   102.94% <-Total Growth 7 Dividends                
Increase         0.00% 1.96% 12.02% 28.76% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 4.55% 4.35% 0.00%   9.66% <-Average 8 Dividends                
Yield H/L       1.57% 1.53% 1.47% 1.28% 1.40% 1.21% 1.78% 2.19% 1.77%       1.58% <-Average 9 Dividends                
Yield on Low       1.89% 1.82% 1.77% 1.50% 1.73% 1.51% 2.71% 3.00% 2.06%       2.00% <-Average 9 Dividends                
Yield on Cl       1.64% 1.40% 1.27% 1.20% 1.22% 1.40% 2.42% 1.74% 1.60% 1.71% 1.71%   1.54% <-Average 9 Dividends                
Payout Ratio       16.4% 20.2% 20.0% 17.2% 14.9% 14.8% 24.9% 27.0% 26.9% 24.2% 20.7%   20.26% <-Average 9 Dividends                
Payout Ratio CF       10.3% 26.5% 10.5% 8.8% 11.1% 10.5% 14.1% 30.2% 34.9% 13.4% 11.9%   17.43% <-Average 9 Dividends                
Average 5 Yrs Div Yd 2.76% in 5 yrs 4.44% in 10 yrs Yield 1.67% 1.68% Payout 21.70% 20.17%       #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 10 Dividends                
* Dividends per share    10.0% 5 10.0% 10   Current Dividend higher than average by-->   2.6% 2.6%   12.18% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Dividends                
                                                       
    $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.04                              
              -$0.58 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.04                              
                                                       
I am earning                     RRSP $54.96 2006 1.97%                          
Yield if held 5 yrs 2.70% 2.82% 3.21% 3.53% 2.71% 2.77% 2.97% 2.79% 2.28% 2.01% 1.45% Ave H/L Yield on your                     
Yield if held 10 yrs 4.80% 4.76% 5.47% 6.12% 6.27% 3.90% 3.33% Ave H/L original money                    
                                                       
Graham Price $11.04 $27.53 $28.01 $38.67 $36.13 $38.30 $45.98 $59.39 $69.79 $59.07 $57.33 $49.70 $53.55 $57.87   Cl Pr higher/lower by?                    
Prem/Disc to H/L 46.5% -40.1% -1.0% -16.1% -7.8% -7.4% -1.4% -9.7% 6.6% -6.1% -21.1% 17.9%       -4.62% <-Average 10 Graham Price                
Prem/Disc to Low 26.4% -51.0% -19.7% -30.4% -22.6% -23.3% -15.4% -26.9% -14.4% -38.2% -42.5% 1.2%       -23.21% <-Average 10 Graham Price                
Prem/Disc to Cl 54.0% -20.1% 13.2% -19.3% 1.1% 6.5% 5.9% 3.4% -8.0% -30.6% -0.9% 30.2% 17.7% 8.9%   0.14% <-Average 10 Graham Price                
                                                   
CPL price $34.00 $44.00                                                  
CPR price $17.00 $22.00                                                  
Price Cl $17.00 $22.00 $31.70 $31.19 $36.52 $40.80 $48.71 $61.40 $64.22 $40.98 $56.79 $64.71 $63.03 $63.03   194.14% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price                
Increase 18.26% 29.41% 44.09% -1.61% 17.09% 11.72% 19.39% 26.05% 4.59% -36.19% 38.58% 13.95% -2.60% 0.00%   11.39% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price                
P/E 89.47 14.38 13.55 10.03 14.49 15.69 14.37 12.23 10.56 10.30 15.47 16.81 14.10 12.07   15.34% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price                
Trailing P/E     20.72 13.33 11.74 16.19 18.73 18.11 12.79 6.74 14.27 17.63 16.37 14.10   13.11% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Div                
Average 5 Yrs 2.22% 1.72% Div %  5, 10 yrs   Price Inc 9.40% P/E: Y-T 13.1 13.9       17.56% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Div                
                                                       
    -$22.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $64.71                              
              -$31.70 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $64.71                              
    -$22.00 $0.00 $0.51 $0.51 $0.52 $0.58 $0.75 $0.90 $0.99 $0.99 $65.75                              
              -$31.70 $0.75 $0.90 $0.99 $0.99 $65.75                              
                                                       
Price Ave H/L $16.18 $16.50 $27.73 $32.46 $33.32 $35.46 $45.36 $53.62 $74.39 $55.48 $45.22 $58.58       255.00% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price                
Increase -10.70% 2.01% 68.03% 17.06% 2.65% 6.42% 27.92% 18.21% 38.74% -25.42% -18.49% 29.53%       13.51% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price                
P/E 85.13 10.78 11.85 10.44 13.22 13.64 13.38 10.68 12.23 13.94 12.32 15.21       13.07% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price                
Trailing P/E     18.12 13.87 10.71 14.07 17.44 15.82 14.82 9.13 11.36 15.96       15.59% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Div                
Average 5 Yrs 2.30% 2.09% Div %  5, 10 yrs   Price Inc 8.52% P/E: Y-T 12.9 13.4       15.37% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Div                
                                                       
    -$16.50 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $58.58                              
              -$31.70 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $58.58                              
    -$16.50 $0.00 $0.51 $0.51 $0.52 $0.58 $0.75 $0.90 $0.99 $0.99 $59.61                              
              -$31.70 $0.75 $0.90 $0.99 $0.99 $59.61                              
                                                       
CP price $36.80 $39.00 $50.37                                                
CPR price $18.40 $19.50 $25.19                                                
Hi Mths             Oct Apr-Dec Jul May Dec Oct                              
Price Hi $18.40 $19.50 $32.95 $37.98 $38.65 $41.55 $51.83 $63.81 $89.00 $74.48 $57.45 $66.86       242.87% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price                
Increase -19.83% 5.98% 68.97% 15.27% 1.76% 7.50% 24.74% 23.11% 39.48% -16.31% -22.87% 16.38%       13.11% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price                
P/E 96.84 12.75 14.08 12.21 15.34 15.98 15.29 12.71 14.64 18.71 15.65 17.37       5.22% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price                
Trailing P/E     21.54 16.23 12.43 16.49 19.93 18.82 17.73 12.25 14.43 18.22                              
Average 5 Yrs             Price Inc 7.96% P/E: Y-T 15.8 16.3                              
                                             
    -$19.50 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $66.86                              
              -$51.83 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $66.86                              
                                                       
CP price $27.90 $27.00                                                  
CPR price $13.95 $13.50                                                  
Low Mths             Jan Jan Dec Nov Mar Feb                              
Price Low $13.95 $13.50 $22.50 $26.93 $27.98 $29.36 $38.88 $43.42 $59.77 $36.48 $32.99 $50.29       272.52% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price                
Increase 5.08% -3.23% 66.67% 19.69% 3.90% 4.93% 32.43% 11.68% 37.66% -38.97% -9.57% 52.44%       14.06% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price                
P/E 73.42 8.82 9.62 8.66 11.10 11.29 11.47 8.65 9.83 9.17 8.99 13.06       5.28% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price                
Trailing P/E     14.71 11.51 9.00 11.65 14.95 12.81 11.91 6.00 8.29 13.70                              
Average 5 Yrs           Price Inc 10.65% P/E: Y-T 9.9 10.5                              
                                           
    -$13.50 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $50.29                              
                                                       
Market Cap $2,693 $3,485 $5,021 $4,944 $5,796 $6,479 $7,706 $9,548 $9,845 $6,303 $9,569 $10,949 $10,665 $10,665                          
                                                       
CP Shares   316.80                                                  
# of Sh in M 158.4 158.4 158.4 158.5 158.7 158.8 158.2 155.5 153.3 153.8 168.5 169.2 169.2 169.2   Shareholders' Equity   Shares                
Increase 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.13% 0.06% -0.38% -1.71% -1.41% 0.33% 9.56% 0.42% 0.00% 0.00%   0.71% <-Average 10 Shares                
CF fr Op $M 672.9 767.6 758.5 784.2 $305.70 $786.00 $1,051 $1,051 $1,315 $1,079 $552 $502 $1,364 $1,531         Cash Flow                
OPS $4.25 $4.85 $4.79 $4.95 $1.93 $4.95 $6.64 $6.76 $8.58 $7.02 $3.27 $2.97 $8.06 $9.05   -38.76% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow                
Increase -1.03% 14.07% -1.19% 3.32% -61.07% 156.95% 34.18% 1.77% 26.88% -18.18% -53.35% -9.33% 171.61% 12.28% -4.79% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow                
Non-Cash CF $42 $1 -$2 $0 $54 -$33 $23 $102 -$50 $132 -$103 $16     -14.88% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow                
OPS non-cash $4.51 $4.85 $4.78 $4.95 $2.26 $4.74 $6.79 $7.41 $8.25 $7.88 $2.66 $3.06 $8.06 $9.05 -4.49% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow                
Increase 13.82% 7.53% -1.57% 3.60% -54.24% 109.39% 43.21% 9.18% 11.27% -4.50% -66.18% 15.03%     -14.71% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow                
P/O on Cl 3.77 4.53 6.64 6.30 16.13 8.61 7.17 8.28 7.79 5.20 21.32 21.12 7.82 6.96                          
*Operational Cash Flow per share P/CF 10 Yrs 10.86 5 Yrs 12.74                    
-$4.85 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.97                    
-$6.64 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.97                    
-$4.85 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.06                    
-$6.79 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.06                    
                                                     
OPM 19.25% 21.00% 20.51% 21.39% 8.35% 20.14% 24.32% 22.93% 27.93% 21.88% 12.82% 10.08%   should be zero, it is a check on calculations                      
Increase 1.1% 10.3% 7.7% 12.4% -56.1% 5.8% 27.8% 20.5% 46.7% 15.0% -32.7% -47.0%       0.00% <-Average 10                  
*Operational Profit Margin (CF/Revenue) Ratio OPM 10 Yrs 19.03% 5 Yrs 19.13%                              
                                                       
Curr Assets $793.4 $829.4 $1,215.5 $909.3 $724.2 $992.0 $893.9 $1,004.9 $1,167.7 $1,123.0 $1,427.4 $1,203.8       Net ratio of 1.5 and up   Assets                
Curr Liab. $1,184.7 $1,261.4 $1,166.4 $1,497.8 $954.6 $1,288.2 $1,116.7 $1,239.0 $1,334.8 $1,309.3 $1,383.0 $1,289.5       0.85 <-Average 10 Liability                
Liquidity 0.67 0.66 1.04 0.61 0.76 0.77 0.80 0.81 0.87 0.86 1.03 0.93       0.90 <-Average 5 Ratio                
Port. Lg Term Dt                     605.30 281.70                              
                      1.84 1.19                              
                                                       
Assets $8,764.6 $8,808.2 $9,661.1 $9,660.8 $9,956.7 $10,500 $10,891 $11,416 $13,365 $15,470 $15,531 $13,676       Net ratio of 1.5 and up   Assets                
Liab. $4,250.5 $5,322.1 $7,300.7 $6,274.4 $6,302.1 $6,517 $6,505 $6,559 $7,907 $9,476 $8,825 $8,851       1.61 <-Average 10 Liability                
Asset/Liab Ratio 2.06 1.66 1.32 1.54 1.58 1.61 1.67 1.74 1.69 1.63 1.76 1.55       1.67 <-Average 5 Ratio                
                        * see bel.                              
Book Value $4,514 $3,486 $2,360 $3,386 $3,655 $3,982 $4,386 $4,857 $5,458 $5,993 $6,706 $4,825 $4,825 $4,825   38.40% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value                
BV per share $28.50 $22.01 $14.90 $21.37 $23.03 $25.08 $27.72 $31.23 $35.60 $38.97 $39.80 $28.51 $28.51 $28.51   29.56% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value                
Change 39.57% -22.77% -32.29% 43.38% 7.78% 8.90% 10.54% 12.66% 14.00% 9.45% 2.13% -28.35% 0.00% 0.00%   1.2946 Current/Historical; Lower, better; best .8 or lower                    
P/BV (CL) 0.60 1.00 2.13 1.46 1.59 1.63 1.76 1.97 1.80 1.05 1.43 2.27 2.21 2.21 2.62% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Book Value                
Change -15.26% 67.57% 112.81% -31.38% 8.63% 2.59% 8.00% 11.89% -8.25% -41.70% 35.69% 59.04% -2.60% 0.00% 0.57% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Book Value                
Leverage (A/BK) 1.94 2.53 4.09 2.85 2.72 2.64 2.48 2.35 2.45 2.58 2.32 2.83 0.00 0.00   2.73 <-Average 10 A/BV                
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.94 1.53 3.09 1.85 1.72 1.64 1.48 1.35 1.45 1.58 1.32 1.83       1.73 <-Average 10 Debt/Equity R              
Averages               P/BV 10 Yrs 1.71 5 Yrs 1.70                              
                                                   
-$22.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.51                              
            -$27.72 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $28.51                              
                                                     
ROE 1.5% 15.3% 15.8% 14.6% 11.0% 10.4% 12.4% 16.4% 17.3% 10.3% 9.1% 11.8%                              
5Yr Running Ave 4.8% 10.7% 11.0% 10.8% 10.7% 13.1% 12.5% 13.1% 13.9% 13.4% 12.8% 12.7%                              
                                                     
Net Income $66.90 $532.30 $372.5 $496.0 $401.3 $413.0 $542.9 $796.30 $946.20 $619.00 $612.4 $567.7       6.65% <-Total Growth 10 Net Income                
Oper C. F. $672.9 $767.6 $758.5 $784.2 $305.7 $786.0 $1,050.7 $1,051.0 $1,314.6 $1,079.1 $551.5 $502.1         Cash Flow Statement CF from continuing operations            
Invest. C. F -$1,075.6 -$536.9 -$589.6 -$571.7 -$700.3 -$666.1 -$896.2 -$896.2 -$2,514.3 -$856.1 -$458.7 -$635.6         Cash Flow Statement                  
Total Accurals $469.6 $301.6 $203.6 $283.5 $795.9 $293.1 $388.4 $641.5 $2,145.9 $396.0 $519.6 $701.2                              
Total Assets $8,764.6 $8,808.2 $9,661.1 $9,661 $9,957 $10,500 $10,891 $11,416 $13,365 $15,470 $15,531 $13,676         Balance Sheet                    
Accruals Ratio 5.36% 3.42% 2.11% 2.93% 7.99% 2.79% 3.57% 5.62% 16.06% 2.56% 3.35% 5.13%                              
                                                       
Chge in Cl 18.26% 29.41% 44.09% -1.61% 17.09% 11.72% 19.39% 26.05% 4.59% -36.19% 38.58% 13.95%                              
                                                       
Fin. C. F             -$413 -$355 $1,454 -$512 $449 -$168                              
Total Accruals             $801 $996 $692 $908 $71 $869                              
Accruals Ratio             7.36% 8.73% 5.18% 5.87% 0.46% 6.35%                              
                                                       
Mar 13, 2011.  When I last looked I got earnings for 2010 and 2011 of $3.40 and $4.05 and cash Flow of $6.02 and $7.05.                                  
*They have their accounting procedures and say that Book Value, under new rules was only $4658.1 for 2009, not originally reported  $6706 some 30.5% less.  Therefore BV increased by 3.6% in 2010.                    
A lot of the figures for 2009 was restated with accounting changes of 2010.  However, I have not changed my spreadsheet.  Shows how fragil accounting figures can be.                          
Mar 3, 2010.  Earnings came in higher, but cash flow came in a lot lower.  Earning estimate for 2010 is lowered, but earnings are expected to recover, as well as Cash Flow in 2011.                        
In Jul 2009 I picked up  for 2009 and 2010 earning estimates of $2.75 and $3.50 and Cash Flow estimates of $6.70 and $7.37.                                  
In April I picked up 2009 and 2010 estimates of $3.70 and $4.20.  Estimates for this stock have declined a lot.                                    
April 26, 2009 AR 2008.  In June 2008, I got earnings estimates of $4.50 (actual was basic at $4.03 and diluted at $3.98) and Revenue Estimates of $4946. (actual $4931.6) for 2008.                       
AP 2007.  I have done ok on this stock since buying in 2006.  TD has a buy rating on it. Dividends are increasing nicely. ANNUAL STATEMENT NOT YET REC                            
AP 2006.  Revenue is not growning well, but earnings are.  My stock is doing well.  TD expects a 7.1% return on this this at present over next year.  Keeper for now.                            
AP2005.  This stock looks a lot better if figures from Financial Post Card is accurate.  They are certainly different from the ones I had used.                                
2004. I do not think that they are making much money.                                                
Prior to 2001, Company was CPR.  (Although dividends were paid prior to 2002, I have no accurate figures.)                                    
                                                       
                                                       
How they make their money                                                  
This company is a transcontinental railway operating in Canada and the U.S. Its rail network serves the principal centres of Canada, from Montreal to Vancouver and the U.S.  northeast and midwest regions.                     
Alliances with other carriers extend its market reach throughout the U.S. and into Mexico. Canadian Pacific Solutions provides logistics and supply chain expertise.                            
                                                       
For most ratios, lower is better when looking for a good stock price.  However, there are exceptions such as for yield and asset/liability ratios and here you want a higher ratios to indicate a good stock price.                      
Also, for the Operational Profit Margin, a higher percentage is better.  With the OPM, you should only compare companies in similar industries.                              
                                                       
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