This report is for educational purposes only, and not to provide investment advice.  Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult a investment professional.
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Pembina Pipelines Income Fund       PIF.UN www.pembina.com   Fiscal Yr: Dec 31   Q1 2010            
Year 12/31/98 12/31/99 12/31/00 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 12/31/09 12/31/10 12/31/11       #Y      
Revenue* $108.679 $101.335 $136.190 $191.647 $224.467 $243.074 $278.291 $290.522 $335.818 $504.788 $674.88 $811.80 $294.57     701.10% <-Total Growth 10 Revenue    
Increase 0.40% -6.76% 34.40% 40.72% 17.13% 8.29% 14.49% 4.40% 15.59% 50.32% 33.70% 20.29% -63.71%     23.13% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue    
Rev per Share $1.74 $1.62 $1.84 $2.18 $2.40 $2.46 $2.70 $2.55 $2.66 $3.81 $5.01 $5.12 $7.26     23.88% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue    
P/S (Price/Sales) 4.74 4.38 4.69 5.18 4.54 5.32 5.05 6.25 5.33 4.61 3.04 3.42 2.53     12.18% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Rev per Share    
Averages           P/S 10 Yrs 4.74 5 Yrs 4.53       13.62% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Rev per Share    
*Revenue in M CDN $                                         
    -$101.34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $811.80                  
              -$278.29 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $811.80                  
    -$1.62 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.12                  
              -$2.70 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.12                  
                          Yr 2010 Yr 2011              
Accting chge '05     $0.80 $0.49 $0.57 $0.52         $208.49 $228.32                  
Distri Cash             $110.50 $123.40 $148.20 $188.90 $207.20 $234.70                  
Distri Inc (FFO) $0.95 $0.95 $0.96 $1.05 $1.05 $1.05 $1.07 $1.08 $1.17 $1.43 $1.54 $1.48 $1.50 $1.54 D 55.77% <-Total Growth 10 Funds fr Operations
Increase 69.64% 0.00% 1.05% 9.38% 0.00% 0.00% 2.24% 0.92% 8.37% 21.38% 7.93% -3.80% 1.36% 2.67%         Funds fr Operations
Payout R Dis 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 101.7% 98.9% 98.1% 92.7% 96.9% 97.4% 107.5% 106.1% 103.3%   99.32% <-Average 10 Funds fr Operations    
P/FFO 8.68 7.47 8.96 10.77 10.38 12.48 12.72 14.72 12.08 12.31 9.91 11.84 12.24 11.92   4.53% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Funds fr Operations    
Trailing P/FFO 14.73 7.47 9.05 11.78 10.38 12.48 13.00 14.86 13.09 14.94 10.69 11.39 12.41 12.24   6.63% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Funds fr Operations    
Distributable cash flow per unit (DCPU)                                          
                        Yr 2010 Yr 2011        
EPS* $0.31 $0.31 $0.78 $0.45 $0.55 $0.50 $0.60 $0.65 $0.73 $1.06 $1.19 $1.07 $1.08 $0.89 D 245.16% <-Total Growth 10 Earnings    
Increase 175.15% 0.00% 151.61% -42.31% 22.22% -9.09% 20.00% 8.33% 12.31% 45.21% 12.26% -10.08% 0.93% -17.59%   13.19% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Earnings    
* ESP per share (Cdn GAAP)                             12.27% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Earnings    
                                           
    -$0.31 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.07                  
              -$0.60 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.07                  
                          Yr 2010 Yr 2011              
last 3 mths of 1997     my actual experience in div payments from 2001                          
Div* $0.95 $0.95 $0.96 $1.05 $1.05 $1.07 $1.06 $1.06 $1.09 $1.38 $1.50 $1.59 $1.59 $1.59   65.75% <-Total Growth 9 Dividends    
Increase 69.64% 0.00% 1.05% 9.38% 0.00% 1.65% -0.48% 0.08% 2.37% 26.90% 8.46% 6.24% 0.00% 0.00%   5.56% <-Average 10 Dividends    
Aver H/L $8.28 $7.72 $7.20 $10.17 $11.28 $11.98 $12.22 $14.18 $14.18 $14.18 $14.18 $14.18 $14.18 $14.18         Stock Prices    
Yield on Aver H/L 11.48% 12.31% 13.33% 10.32% 9.31% 8.91% 8.70% 7.50% 7.67% 9.74% 10.56% 11.22% 11.22% 11.22%   9.73% <-Average 10 Dividends    
Yield on Cl 11.52% 13.38% 11.16% 9.28% 9.63% 8.15% 7.78% 6.67% 7.67% 7.87% 9.83% 9.08% 8.67% 8.67%   8.71% <-Average 10 Dividends    
Payout Ratio 306.5% 306.5% 123.1% 233.3% 190.9% 213.5% 177.0% 163.6% 149.1% 130.3% 125.9% 148.7% 147.3% 178.8%   165.53% <-Average 10 Dividends    
Payout Ratio CF 93.3% 100.1% 133.3% 102.1% 99.5% 117.2% 91.0% 107.8% 95.5% 96.6% 91.7% 112.4% 102.0% 98.8%   104.70% <-Average 10 Dividends    
Average 5 Yrs           Yield  9.34% 8.22% Payout 143.50% 98.52%       5.29% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Dividends    
* Dividends per share                              8.42% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Dividends    
                                           
    -$0.950 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $1.591                  
              -$1.062 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $1.591                  
                          Yr 2010 Yr 2011              
I am earning           Trading $10.19 2001 15.61% RRSP $9.90 2001 16.07%           Dividends    
Yield if held 5 yrs   ` 13.46% 12.90% 13.76% 14.77% 10.70% 12.25% 12.50% 13.03% 11.22% 11.22% Ave H/L Yield on your  Dividends  
Yield if held 10 yrs   17.71% 18.10% 20.61% 22.10% 15.65% Ave H/L original money Dividends  
                          Yr 2010 Yr 2011              
Gra Pr (FFO + BV+D) $14.26 $13.77 $13.67 $14.11 $13.78 $13.49 $13.39 $13.60 $14.39 $16.25 $16.70 $17.03 $17.27                
Graham Pr BV $7.73 $7.43 $11.62 $8.64 $9.30 $8.64 $9.27 $9.77 $10.53 $12.79 $13.25 $13.09 $13.27 $12.05   Cl Pr higher/lower by?        
Prem/Disc High 16.5% 23.7% -26.0% 32.4% 25.8% 53.7% 49.2% 74.0% 75.7% 40.7% 41.0% 35.1%       40.17% <-Average 10 Graham Price    
Prem/Disc Low -2.3% -15.9% -50.1% 3.0% 16.7% 23.6% 14.4% 32.5% 36.6% 4.5% -3.8% -10.3%       6.71% <-Average 10 Graham Price    
Prem/Disc Cl 6.8% -4.5% -26.0% 30.9% 17.2% 51.7% 47.3% 63.2% 34.6% 37.2% 15.0% 33.8% 38.3% 52.4%   30.49% <-Average 10 Graham Price    
                                       
Price Cl $8.25 $7.10 $8.60 $11.31 $10.90 $13.10 $13.65 $15.95 $14.18 $17.54 $15.24 $17.52 $18.36 $18.36   146.76% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Prices    
Increase 38.66% -13.94% 21.13% 31.51% -3.63% 20.18% 4.20% 16.85% -11.10% 23.70% -13.11% 14.96% 4.79% 0.00%   9.45% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Prices    
P/E 26.61 22.90 11.03 25.13 19.82 26.20 22.75 24.54 19.42 16.55 12.81 16.37 17.00 20.63   5.12% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Prices    
Trailing P/E 73.23 22.90 27.74 14.50 24.22 23.82 27.30 26.58 21.82 24.03 14.38 14.72 17.16 17.00   20.86% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Div    
Average 5 Yr             Price Inc 6.26% P/E: Y-T 17.94 20.31       13.74% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Div    
                                           
    -$7.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $17.52                  
              -$13.65 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $17.52                  
    -$7.10 $0.96 $1.05 $1.05 $1.07 $1.06 $1.06 $1.09 $1.38 $1.50 $19.11                  
              -$13.65 $1.06 $1.09 $1.38 $1.50 $19.11                  
                                           
                Dec Mar Oct-Dec Jun Dec                  
Price Hi $9.00 $9.19 $8.60 $11.44 $11.70 $13.28 $13.83 $17.00 $18.51 $17.99 $18.68 $17.69       92.49% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Prices    
Increase -10.00% 2.11% -6.42% 33.02% 2.27% 13.50% 4.14% 22.92% 8.88% -2.81% 3.84% -5.30%       6.77% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Prices    
P/E 29.03 29.65 11.03 25.42 21.27 26.56 23.05 26.15 25.36 16.97 15.70 16.53       5.05% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Prices    
Trailing P/E 79.88 29.65 27.74 14.67 26.00 24.15 27.66 28.33 28.48 24.64 17.62 14.87                  
Average 5 Yr             Price Inc 5.51% P/E: Y-T 20.14 22.79                  
                                         
    -$9.19 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $17.69                  
              -$13.83 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $17.69                  
                                           
                Mar Nov Jan-Mar Oct Mar                  
Price Low $7.55 $6.25 $5.80 $8.90 $10.85 $10.68 $10.60 $12.95 $14.39 $13.36 $12.75 $11.74       87.84% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Prices    
Increase 34.82% -17.22% -7.20% 53.45% 21.91% -1.57% -0.75% 22.17% 11.12% -7.16% -4.57% -7.92%       6.51% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Prices    
P/E 24.35 20.16 7.44 19.78 19.73 21.36 17.67 19.92 19.71 12.60 10.71 10.97       2.06% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Prices    
Trailing P/E 67.01 20.16 18.71 11.41 24.11 19.42 21.20 21.58 22.14 18.30 12.03 9.87                  
Average 5 Yr             Price Inc 2.73% P/E: Y-T 14.79 16.78                  
                                         
    -$6.25 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $11.74                  
              -$10.60 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $11.74                  
                                           
Market Cap $M $515 $444 $638 $994 $1,020 $1,294 $1,405 $1,817 $1,790 $2,325 $2,053 $2,779 $2,978 $2,978              
                          Yr 2010 Yr 2011              
Units at '97 0.07 #REF!                                      
Inc '000                                          
acct OCF chge '05     $52.059 $92.892 $106.978 103.897 120.165                            
# of Units 62.425 62.469 74.218 87.856 93.583 98.766 102.933 113.897 126.218 132.542 134.703 158.600 162.213 162.213   Trust Units     Shares    
Increase in Units 0.00% 0.07% 18.81% 18.38% 6.52% 5.54% 4.22% 10.65% 10.82% 5.01% 1.63% 17.74% 2.28% 0.00%   9.93% <-Average 10 Shares    
OCF $63.581 $59.293 $53.459 $90.325 $98.771 89.963 120.165 112.360 143.860 189.540 219.905 224.615 253.052 261.162   278.82% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow    
OPS $1.02 $0.95 $0.72 $1.03 $1.06 $0.91 $1.17 $0.99 $1.14 $1.43 $1.63 $1.42 $1.56 $1.61 D 49.21% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow
Increase 264.49% -6.81% -24.11% 42.73% 2.66% -13.70% 28.16% -15.50% 15.54% 25.47% 14.16% -13.25% 10.15% 3.21%   6.22% <-Average 10 Cash Flow
P/O on Cl 8.10 7.48 11.94 11.00 10.33 14.38 11.69 16.17 12.44 12.27 9.34 12.37 11.77 11.40   4.08% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow
Non -Cash -$11.42 $3.71   3.94% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow
*Operational Cash Flow per share  P/CF 10 Yrs  12.19 5 Yrs   12.52  
    -$0.949 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $1.416                  
              -$1.167 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 $1.416                  
                                           
OPM 58.50% 58.51% 39.25% 47.13% 44.00% 37.01% 43.18% 38.68% 42.84% 37.55% 32.58% 27.67%     should be zero, it is a check on calculations    
Increase 50.1% 50.1% 0.7% 20.9% 12.9% -5.1% 10.7% -0.8% 9.9% -3.7% -16.4% -29.0%       0.00% <-Average 10 OPM
*Operational Profit Margin (CF/Revenue) Ratio OPM 10 Yrs 38.99% 5 Yrs 35.86%            
                          Q1 2010                
Curr Assets $14.795 $11.575 $42.413 $37.933 $34.551 $36.894 $26.432 $31.012 $46.808 $72.913 $78.778 $150.664 $192.059     Liq ratio of 1.5 and up, best   Assets    
Curr Liab. $8.545 $11.023 $118.060 $35.494 $35.886 $165.659 $28.292 $51.734 $71.173 $81.812 $165.328 $272.676 $266.738     0.67 <-Average 10 Liabilities    
Diff $3.125 $0.276 -$37.824 $1.220 -$0.668 -$64.383 -$0.930 -$10.361 -$12.183 -$4.450 -$43.275 -$61.006 -$37.340     0.64 <-Average 5 Ratio    
Curr Long Term Db                   $81.904 $157.423 $157.559                
Liquidity 1.73 1.05 0.36 1.07 0.96 0.22 0.93 0.60 0.66 0.89 0.48 0.55 0.72                
Liq. Less LTD                     0.94 1.31 1.76                
                          Q1 2010                
Assets $542.82 $666.75 $1,114.80 $1,297.55 $1,255.56 $1,574.50 $1,548.90 $1,559.12 $1,676.2 $1,966.8 $2,118.2 $2,581.1 $2,620.2     A/L ratio of 1.5 and up, best   Assets    
Liab. $8.54 $172.11 $543.68 $649.90 $601.58 $919.44 $893.85 $815.51 $823.7 $1,058.1 $1,235.0 $1,451.8 $1,444.0     1.89 <-Average 10 Liabilities    
Liquidity 63.52 3.87 2.05 2.00 2.09 1.71 1.73 1.91 2.03 1.86 1.72 1.78 1.81     1.86 <-Average 5 Ratio    
                          Q1 2010                
Book Value $534.27 $494.64 $571.12 $647.65 $653.98 $655.06 $655.05 $743.61 $852.48 $908.74 $883.23 $1,129.4 $1,176.2 $1,176.2   128.32% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value    
BV per share $8.56 $7.92 $7.70 $7.37 $6.99 $6.63 $6.36 $6.53 $6.75 $6.86 $6.56 $7.12 $7.25 $7.25   -10.07% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value    
Plus Payout $9.51 $8.87 $8.66 $8.42 $8.04 $7.70 $7.43 $7.59 $7.84 $8.24 $8.05 $8.71 $8.84     -1.76% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value plus    
Change -2.57% -6.74% -2.40% -2.70% -4.55% -4.21% -3.55% 2.23% 3.30% 5.04% -2.22% 8.16% 1.49% -100.00%   1.2170 Current/Historical   Book Value    
P/BV (CL) 0.96 0.90 1.12 1.53 1.56 1.98 2.14 2.44 2.10 2.56 2.32 2.46 2.53 2.53 -1.06% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Book Value    
Change 49.04% -6.98% 24.64% 37.28% 1.66% 26.63% 8.60% 13.90% -14.06% 21.85% -9.15% 5.86% 2.92% 0.00% 2.27% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Book Value    
Leverage (A/BK) 1.02 1.35 1.95 2.00 1.92 2.40 2.36 2.10 1.97 2.16 2.40 2.29 2.23 0.00   2.16 <-Average 10 A/BV    
Averages             P/BV 10 Yrs 2.02 5 Yrs 2.38   2.18 <-Average 5 A/BV    
                               
  -$7.92 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $7.12                  
            -$6.36 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $7.12                  
                        Q1 2010                
ROE 3.6% 3.9% 9.2% 6.2% 9.1% 7.3% 9.2% 9.5% 10.4% 15.7% 18.3% 14.4% 17.4%     Net Income/Shareholders' equity   ROE    
5Yr Running Ave       4.8% 6.6% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3% 9.2% 10.7% 13.0% 13.8% 15.2%           ROE    
                        Q1 2010                
Net Income $19.32 $19.32 $52.49 $40.27 $59.54 $47.96 $60.42 $70.41 $88.89 $142.31 $161.80 $162.08 $51.07       Income Statement      
Oper C. F. $63.58 $59.29 $53.46 $90.33 $98.77 $89.96 $120.17 $112.36 $143.86 $189.54 $219.91 $224.62 $67.33       Cash Flow Statement     
Invest. C. F -$12.06 -$8.97 -$401.24 -$233.79 -$20.81 -$325.15 -$68.76 -$71.86 -$159.12 -$286.76 -$183.16 -$447.79 -$21.25       Cash Flow Statement    
Total Accruals -$32.20 -$31.00 $400.27 $183.74 -$18.43 $283.14 $9.02 $29.91 $104.14 $239.53 $125.06 $385.25 $4.99                
Total Assets $542.8 $666.8 $1,114.8 $1,297.6 $1,255.6 $1,574.5 $1,548.9 $1,559.1 $1,676.2 $1,966.8 $2,118.2 $2,581.1 $655.0       Balance Sheet        
Accruals Ratio -5.93% -4.65% 35.90% 14.16% -1.47% 17.98% 0.58% 1.92% 6.21% 12.18% 5.90% 14.93% 0.76%           Accruals Ratio    
                                           
Chge in Cl. 38.66% -13.94% 21.13% 31.51% -3.63% 20.18% 4.20% 16.85% -11.10% 23.70% -13.11% 14.96% 4.79%                
                                           
Fin. C. F -$63.67 -$53.07 $349.09 $146.46 -$86.48 $234.20 -$57.65 -$44.84 $24.43 $112.10 -$39.84 $293.76 -$9.49                
Total Accruals $31.5 $22.1 $51.2 $37.3 $68.0 $48.9 $66.7 $74.7 $79.7 $127.4 $164.9 $91.5 $14.5                
Accruals Ratio 5.80% 3.31% 4.59% 2.87% 5.42% 3.11% 4.30% 4.79% 4.76% 6.48% 7.78% 3.54% 2.21%           Accruals Ratio    
                                           
Taxes                                          
Other Income 65.15% 82.42% 80.23% 85.79% 85.06% 90.94% 97.71% 84.62% 76.77% 86.15% 81.08%         86.21% <-Average 6      
Ret of Cap. 34.85% 17.58% 19.77% 14.21% 14.94% 7.43% 1.14% 15.38% 23.23% 13.85% 18.92%         13.33% <-Average 6      
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 98.37% 98.85% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%                    
                    $1.18 $1.21                    
                    $0.19 $0.28                    
Total                   $1.37 $1.49                    
check                   $1.37 $1.49                    
                                           
There will be no capital gain or loss on conversion to Corporation, probably 1 July 2010.  Distributions then will be taxed as dividends.                      
Apr 17, 2010.  When I last looked at this stock, I got estimates for 2009 and 2010 for earnings of $1.09 and 1.13 and cash flow of $1.65 and $1.62 and FFO of $1.79 and $1.72.              
Stock did not meet these estimates.  The closes was in earnings, but was way off for FFO and Cash Flow.  Half increase in units for Reinvestment plan and rest for purchase.                
It seems to me that they raised enough money with bank loans, debt instruments and selling units to pay for debt, distributions and investments in additional assets. Most of the cash flow is used in distributions.        
They will do no more distribution increases for about 3 years.  They say that they remain on track to maintain our current level of cash distributions of $1.56 per unit per year through to 2013.          
Markets did not really punish this stock for not meeting estimates.  Ones with Sell or reduce recommendations feel stock is overpriced.                        
Mar 29, 2009.  All estimates have been lowered from the last time I looked at this stock.                              
Mar 6, 2009 AP 2008.  This company expects to switch to a Corporation in the later part of 2010.  It expects to maintain its distribution of $1.56 for the next 5 years.                
AP 2007. Still problem of Units increasing and Bookvalue. But Bookvalue went up slightly this year.  However, last 5 years, make 19% IRR and since buying in 2001 make 16% IRR. TD currently rates it as a hold and does not expect stock price to increase much over next year (to $17).
AR 2006.  Still has problem that #  of units increasing and bookvalue going down. 2006 is second year it has gone up 7 years of downs. Yield is good. Drop in Nov re Gov Tax changes.              
TD rates as hold as do others.                                        
AP 2005.  Stock is doing what it is supposed to be doing.  However, share holder value is going down, see Book Value.                        
AP 2003.  Because of yield, I get a very good return.  This is what this stock is to do.  Revenue increasing, Earnings increasing, but so are # of units. At the moment it is a keeper.               
May 2003.  This is an income trust fund.  It is to provide me with income and with a utility stocks.  I think it can do this.                        
This stock is also a pipeline and I should watch it re chge to a hydrogen economy, although I think it will adjust to this.                        
Purchase price is a little to high to purchase more at the moment.                                  
Issued Oct '97 at $10 (previous company was Pembina Pipeline Corporation - PPC)                              
                                           
How they make their money                                      
This is the biggest Pipeline Income Fund in Canada.  It is a utility. It is engaged in the transportation of light conventional and synthetic crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids in Western Canada.        
                                           
For all Ratios, lower is better when looking for a good stock price.  The exception is for yield and here you want a higher yield to indicate a good stock price.                  
                                           
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