This report should not be construed as providing investment advice. It is for educational purposes only.  Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult a investment professional.
While I try to be accurate, I assume no responsibility for any figure in this spreadsheet. 8/30/11
See my website on stocks or see my blog at the following sites.  www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html www.spbrunner.blogspot.com/
Stella-Jones Inc www.stella-jones.com TSX: SJ Fiscal Yr: Dec 31
Year 12/31/99 12/31/00 12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 12/31/09 12/31/10 12/31/11 12/30/12 #Y
Accounting Rules C GAAP C GAAP
Revenue* $69.0 $87.0 $87.8 $96.7 $96.5 $129.0 $157.1 $223.9 $269.7 $384.8 $411.1 $561.0 544.55% <-Total Growth 10 Revenue
Increase -15.87% 26.16% 0.90% 10.05% -0.11% 33.59% 21.83% 42.46% 20.49% 42.68% 6.83% 36.47% 20.48% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue
Rev per Share $7.46 $9.73 $9.71 $10.68 $9.64 $12.60 $14.44 $18.20 $21.86 $30.63 $32.41 $35.23 28.99% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue
P/S (Price/Sales) 0.33 0.24 0.21 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.97 1.89 1.88 0.54 0.79 0.94 13.73% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Rev Per share
*Revenue in M CDN $  P/S 10 yr  0.66 5 yr  0.94 19.53% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Rev Per share
-$87.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $561.0
-$157.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $561.0
-$9.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $35.2
-$14.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $35.2
YR 2011 YR 2011
EPS* $0.37 $0.34 $0.05 $0.41 $0.39 $0.70 $1.08 $1.76 $2.03 $2.25 $2.37 $2.26 $3.34 $3.82 564.71% <-Total Growth 10 Earnings
Increase -5.13% -8.11% -85.29% 720.00% -4.88% 79.49% 54.29% 62.96% 15.34% 10.84% 5.33% -4.64% 47.79% 14.37% 20.85% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Earnings
Earnings Yield 14.8% 14.8% 2.5% 14.9% 10.7% 11.5% 7.7% 5.1% 5.0% 13.7% 9.2% 6.8% 8.5% 9.7% 15.91% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Earnings
* ESP per share (Cdn GAAP) E/P 10 Yrs 8.46% 5Yrs 6.79%
-$0.34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.26
-$1.08 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.26
Div* $0.07 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.10 $0.14 $0.24 $0.34 $0.36 $0.38 $0.50 $0.52 375.00% <-Total Growth 10 Dividends
Increase 0.00% 14.29% 0.00% 25.00% 40.00% 71.43% 41.67% 5.88% 5.56% 31.58% 4.00% 14.29% <-Median-> 9 Dividends
Yield H/L Pr. 3.22% 2.95% 2.56% 1.57% 1.00% 0.75% 0.60% 1.26% 1.86% 1.31% 1.44% <-Median-> 10 Dividends
Yield on High  Pr. 2.80% 2.33% 2.19% 1.25% 0.71% 0.60% 0.50% 0.87% 1.40% 1.14% 1.20% <-Median-> 10 Dividends
Yield on Low Pr. 3.78% 4.00% 3.08% 2.10% 1.72% 1.02% 0.76% 2.27% 2.78% 1.53% 2.18% <-Median-> 10 Dividends
Yield on Cl Pr. 3.50% 2.55% 2.19% 1.31% 0.71% 0.41% 0.59% 2.07% 1.40% 1.14% 1.27% 1.32% 1.35% <-Median-> 10 Dividends
Payout Ratio 140.0% 17.1% 20.5% 11.4% 9.3% 8.0% 11.8% 15.1% 15.2% 16.8% 15.0% 13.6% 15.15% <-Median-> 10 DPR EPS
Payout Ratio CF 18.7% 5.7% 16.4% 9.2% 51.7% 16.8% 17.0% -129.6% 11.3% 7.4% 11.6% 11.3% 13.84% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF
Payout Ratio CF NC 20.6% 10.9% 11.7% 7.5% 6.8% 6.5% 8.9% 10.4% 11.2% 12.1% 11.6% 11.3% 10.65% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF NC
Average 5 Yrs Div Yd 4.02% 5 12.25% 10 Yield  1.26% 1.14% Payout 15.11% 11.28% 23.55% <-IRR #YR-> 8 Dividends
* Dividends per share  25.0% Years 25.0% Years Last Div Inc ---> $0.24 $0.26 8.3% 30.60% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Dividends
-$0.07 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.38
-$0.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.38
H/LYield held 5 yrs 4.18% 4.12% 3.60% 3.72% 3.88% 6.44% 10.11% 10.88% 7.05% 3.81% 2.69% 1.31% 4.15% <-Median-> 10 Dividends
H/LYield held 10 yrs 1.77% 4.82% 8.36% 14.12% 15.28% 16.74% 14.76% 22.99% 21.89% 14.12% <-Median-> 7 Dividends
H/LYield held 15 yrs 7.96% 18.31% 29.85% 30.59% 13.13% <-Median-> 2 Dividends
Graham No. $5.20 $5.20 $1.98 $6.00 $6.09 $8.70 $12.03 $18.46 $21.72 $25.49 $27.51 $29.98 $39.13 $41.85 476.97% <-Total Growth 10 Graham Price
Prem /Disc.Med H/L -58.63% -50.44% 9.67% -60.43% -48.67% -41.33% -17.09% 0.76% 82.88% 5.92% -29.65% -3.01% -10.05% <-Median-> 10 Graham Price
Prem /Disc. High -49.97% -40.33% 26.06% -50.02% -40.04% -26.45% 17.62% 27.31% 120.98% 53.03% -6.39% 11.05% 14.34% <-Median-> 10 Graham Price
Prem /Disc. Low -67.29% -60.54% -6.71% -70.84% -57.29% -56.22% -51.79% -25.78% 44.79% -41.18% -52.92% -17.07% -46.49% <-Median-> 10 Graham Price
Prem /Disc. Cl -51.89% -55.73% 0.85% -54.18% -40.04% -29.90% 16.37% 86.35% 88.75% -35.65% -6.39% 11.05% 1.00% -5.56% -2.77% <-Median-> 10 Graham Price
Price Cl $2.50 $2.30 $2.00 $2.75 $3.65 $6.10 $14.00 $34.40 $41.00 $16.40 $25.75 $33.29 $39.52 $39.52 1347.39% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price
Increase 42.86% -8.00% -13.04% 37.50% 32.73% 67.12% 129.51% 145.71% 19.19% -60.00% 57.01% 29.28% 18.71% 0.00% 30.63% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price
P/E 6.76 6.76 40.00 6.71 9.36 8.71 12.96 19.55 20.20 7.29 10.86 14.73 11.83 10.35 18.92% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price
Trailing P/E 6.41 6.22 5.88 55.00 8.90 15.64 20.00 31.85 23.30 8.08 11.44 14.05 17.49 11.83 32.62% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Div
Median 10, 5 Yrs 1.99% 1.41% Div %  Ret. Price Inc 29.28% P/E:  11.91 14.73 20.32% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Div
-$2.30 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $33.29
-$14.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $33.29
-$2.30 $0.07 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.10 $0.14 $0.24 $0.34 $0.36 $33.67
-$14.00 $0.14 $0.24 $0.34 $0.36 $33.67
Price H/L Median $2.15 $2.58 $2.18 $2.38 $3.13 $5.11 $9.98 $18.60 $39.73 $27.00 $19.35 $29.08 1029.13% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price
Increase -3.37% 19.77% -15.53% 9.20% 31.58% 63.36% 95.40% 86.47% 113.58% -32.05% -28.32% 50.26% 27.43% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price
P/E 5.81 7.57 43.50 5.79 8.01 7.29 9.24 10.57 19.57 12.00 8.16 12.87 23.86% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price
Trailing P/E 5.51 6.96 6.40 47.50 7.62 13.09 14.25 17.22 22.57 13.30 8.60 12.27 29.40% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Div
Median 10, 5 Yrs 1.97% 1.82% Div %  Ret. Price Inc 50.26% P/E:  9.90 12.00 25.67% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Div
-$2.58 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $29.08
-$9.98 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $29.08
-$2.58 $0.07 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.10 $0.14 $0.24 $0.34 $0.36 $29.46
-$9.98 $0.14 $0.24 $0.34 $0.36 $29.46
Hi Mths Oct Sep Ma Oct Dec Nov Dec May Jun Jan Dec Dec
Price Hi $2.60 $3.10 $2.50 $3.00 $3.65 $6.40 $14.15 $23.50 $48.00 $39.00 $25.75 $33.29 973.87% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price
Increase -3.70% 19.23% -19.35% 20.00% 21.67% 75.34% 121.09% 66.08% 104.26% -18.75% -33.97% 29.28% 26.79% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price
P/E 7.03 9.12 50.00 7.32 9.36 9.14 13.10 13.35 23.65 17.33 10.86 14.73 18.66% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price
Trailing P/E 6.67 8.38 7.35 60.00 8.90 16.41 20.21 21.76 27.27 19.21 11.44 14.05
Median 10, 5 Yrs Price Inc 29.28% P/E:  13.23 14.73
-$3.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $33.29
-$14.15 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $33.29
Low Mths Feb Jul Dec Jan Feb May Jan Jan Feb Dec Mar Nov
Price Low $1.70 $2.05 $1.85 $1.75 $2.60 $3.81 $5.80 $13.70 $31.45 $14.99 $12.95 $24.86 1112.68% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price
Increase -2.86% 20.59% -9.76% -5.41% 48.57% 46.54% 52.23% 136.21% 129.56% -52.34% -13.61% 91.97% 28.34% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price
P/E 4.59 6.03 37.00 4.27 6.67 5.44 5.37 7.78 15.49 6.66 5.46 11.00 33.79% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price
Trailing P/E 4.36 5.54 5.44 35.00 6.34 9.77 8.29 12.69 17.87 7.38 5.76 10.49
Median 10, 5 Yrs Price Inc 91.97% P/E:  6.66 7.78
-$2.05 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $24.86
Market Cap $23 $21 $18 $25 $37 $62 $152 $423 $506 $206 $327 $530 $629 $629
# of Sh in M 9.25 8.95 9.04 9.05 10.01 10.24 10.88 12.30 12.34 12.57 12.68 15.92 15.92 15.92 Capital Stock
Increase -0.64% -3.22% 1.07% 0.11% 10.60% 2.22% 6.31% 13.02% 0.35% 1.82% 0.95% 25.54% 0.00% 0.00% 2.02% <-Median-> 10 Shares
CF fr Op $M -$1.8 -$1.7 $3.4 $11.1 $4.9 $8.9 $2.1 $10.2 $17.4 -$3.3 $40.5 $81.6 $68.8 $73.1 2316.34% <-Total Growth 9 Cash Flow
OPS -$0.19 -$0.19 $0.37 $1.23 $0.49 $0.87 $0.19 $0.83 $1.41 -$0.26 $3.19 $5.13 $4.32 $4.59 1272.29% <-Total Growth 9 Cash Flow
Increase 1.82% -293% 228.77% -60.28% 78.22% -77.75% 330.10% 69.43% -119% -1317% 61% -16% 6% 0.16% <-Median-> 10 Cash Flow
Non-Cash CF $6.6 $7.1 -$0.3 -$5.3 $1.9 $2.0 $13.9 $16.2 $16.0 $44.4 $0.5 -$31.5 $0.0 $0.0 33.78% <-IRR #YR-> 9 Cash Flow
OPS non-cash $0.53 $0.60 $0.34 $0.64 $0.68 $1.07 $1.47 $2.15 $2.71 $3.27 $3.23 $3.15 $4.32 $4.59 92.60% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow
P/OCF on Close 4.75 3.83 5.90 4.28 5.36 5.72 9.54 16.00 15.13 5.02 7.98 10.58 9.15 8.61 18.01% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CF - non cash
*Operational Cash Flow per share P/CF 10 yr 6.94 5 yr  10.58 16.47% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CF - non cash
-$0.37 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.13
-$0.19 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.13
OPM -2.54% -1.98% 3.85% 11.50% 5.06% 6.90% 1.34% 4.57% 6.45% -0.86% 9.85% 14.55% should be zero, it is a check on calculations
Diff from Ave -144.2% -134.5% -33.2% 99.9% -12.1% 19.9% -76.7% -20.6% 12.1% -114.9% 71.1% 152.8% 0.00 <-Median-> 10 OPM
*Operational Profit Margin (CF/Revenue) Ratio OPM 10 Yrs 5.75% 5 Yrs 6.45%
Q3 2011
Curr Assets $42.82 $51.72 $58.65 $48.08 $61.70 $67.36 $100.54 $152.24 $169.57 $277.11 $254.58 $272.25 $333.89 Liq ratio of 1.5 and up, best Assets
Curr Liab. $20.44 $30.36 $37.86 $26.66 $35.82 $30.77 $45.05 $72.27 $66.33 $120.21 $84.50 $79.85 $50.67 2.21 <-Median-> 10 Liabilities
Liquidity 2.09 1.70 1.55 1.80 1.72 2.19 2.23 2.11 2.56 2.31 3.01 3.41 6.59 2.56 <-Median-> 5 Ratio
Assets $57.99 $74.49 $80.85 $69.44 $93.35 $98.12 $137.89 $213.67 $244.59 $407.55 $370.80 $521.63 $596.70 A/L ratio of 1.5 and up, best Assets
Liab. $28.00 $42.92 $49.24 $34.08 $51.06 $48.91 $73.08 $107.85 $117.10 $246.34 $190.82 $240.25 $272.29 1.96 <-Median-> 10 Liabilities
Liquidity 2.07 1.74 1.64 2.04 1.83 2.01 1.89 1.98 2.09 1.65 1.94 2.17 2.19 1.98 <-Median-> 5 Ratio
Book Value $29.99 $31.57 $31.61 $35.36 $42.29 $49.21 $64.81 $105.82 $127.49 $161.20 $179.98 $281.39 $324.41 791.31% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value
BV per share $3.24 $3.53 $3.50 $3.91 $4.22 $4.81 $5.96 $8.60 $10.33 $12.83 $14.19 $17.67 $20.37 $20.37 400.82% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value
Change 11.12% 8.77% -0.92% 11.71% 8.14% 13.84% 23.89% 44.47% 20.05% 24.19% 10.60% 24.54% 15.29% 1.2543 Current/Historical; Lower, better; best .8 or lower
P/BV (CL) 0.77 0.65 0.57 0.70 0.86 1.27 2.35 4.00 3.97 1.28 1.81 1.88 1.94 17.48% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Book Value
Change 28.56% -15.42% -12.23% 23.09% 22.74% 46.81% 85.25% 70.08% -0.72% -67.79% 41.96% 3.81% 2.97% 24.30% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Book Value
Leverage (A/BK) 1.93 2.36 2.56 1.96 2.21 1.99 2.13 2.02 1.92 2.53 2.06 1.85 1.84 2.04 <-Median-> 10 A/BV
Debt/Equity Ratio 0.93 1.36 1.56 0.96 1.21 0.99 1.13 1.02 0.92 1.53 1.06 0.85 0.84 1.04 <-Median-> 10 Debt/Eq Ratio
Sharerholders Equity (Assets less liabilities) P/BV 10 yr Med 1.55 5 yr Med 1.88
-$3.53 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $17.67
-$5.96 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $17.67
ROE 19.8% 17.4% 22.2% 12.5% 10.3% 17.37% <-Median-> 5 Compreh. Inc
Comprehensive Inc $20.97 $22.15 $35.85 $22.43 $28.88 Compreh. Inc
ROE 12.1% 10.0% 1.5% 10.5% 8.9% 14.8% 17.8% 19.7% 20.2% 17.7% 16.7% 12.2% 16.3% <-12 mths Net Income/Shareholders' equity
5Yr Median 9.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.5% 14.8% 17.8% 17.8% 17.8% 17.7% 16.7% <-12 mths
Net Income $3.62 $3.16 $0.49 $3.72 $3.75 $7.29 $11.50 $20.85 $25.70 $28.55 $30.07 $34.40 $52.94 <-12 mths 989.99% <-Total Growth 10 Net Income
Oper C. F. -$1.75 -$1.73 $3.38 $11.12 $4.88 $8.90 $2.10 $10.23 $17.39 -$3.30 $40.48 $81.61 C F Statement  Oper C. F.
Invest. C. F -$3.91 $5.56 -$1.85 -$1.27 -$19.07 -$3.88 $23.83 -$50.36 -$23.53 -$49.04 -$4.26 -$89.38 C F Statement  Invest. C. F
Total Accruals $9.29 -$0.68 -$1.04 -$6.12 $17.94 $2.28 -$14.43 $60.98 $31.84 $80.88 -$6.15 $42.17 Accruals
Total Assets $57.99 $74.49 $80.85 $69.44 $93.35 $98.12 $137.89 $213.67 $244.59 $407.55 $370.80 $521.63 Balance Sheet Assets
Accruals Ratio 16.02% -0.91% -1.28% -8.82% 19.22% 2.32% -10.46% 28.54% 13.02% 19.85% -1.66% 8.08% Ratio
up/down/neutral Need free cash flow (cash from operations, with depreciation and amortization added back and capital spending subtracted) to amply cover the payouts.
Chge in Close 42.86% -8.00% -13.04% 37.50% 32.73% 67.12% 129.51% 145.71% 19.19% -60.00% 57.01% 29.28%
Any Predictions?
Fin. C. F $1.53 $7.29 -$1.52 -$9.84 $14.19 -$5.01 $21.64 $39.94 $6.14 $52.34 -$36.22 $7.78 C F Statement  Fin. C. F
Total Accruals $7.76 -$7.96 $0.49 $3.72 $3.75 $7.29 -$36.07 $21.03 $25.70 $28.55 $30.07 $34.40 Accruals
Accruals Ratio 13.38% -10.69% 0.60% 5.36% 4.02% 7.43% -26.16% 9.84% 10.51% 7.00% 8.11% 6.59% Ratio
Nov 20, 2011.  Last estiamtes for 2009 and 2010 were $2.55 and $2.75 for EPS.
Jun 13, 2009AR 2008.  My one concern is that with the Accrual Ratio so high there may be a question on the quality of the reported earnings.  This is a small, dividend paying growing company.
As such, this investment would be part speculation and part investment.  A lot of the return on this stock will be an increase in stock price.
The thing I worry about is that cash flow was negative in 2008.  Cash Flow is usually more accurate than EPS.  They have EPS, but not Cash Flow.  Also, the high Accrual Ratio points may point to a problem 
with the quality of their earnings.
Dividends are paid Semi-annually in May and November.  Dividends are usually raised in November.
How they make their money.
Stella-Jones Inc. is a leading North American producer and marketer of industrial pressure treated wood products, specializing in the production of railway ties and timbers as well as wood poles supplied 
to electrical utilities and telecommunications companies. The Company also provides treated consumer lumber products and customized services to lumber retailers and wholesalers for outdoor applications.
Other products include marine and foundation pilings, construction timbers, highway guardrail posts and treated wood for bridges. It has sales in Canada and US.
For most ratios, lower is better when looking for a good stock price.  However, there are exceptions such as for yield and asset/liability ratios and here you want a higher ratios to indicate a good stock price.  
Also, for the Operational Profit Margin, a higher percentage is better.  With the OPM, you should only compare companies in similar industries.
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